Summary of Climate Variables
| Climate Change for British Columbia Region in 2050s Period |
|---|
| Climate Variable | Time of Year | Projected Change
from 1961-1990 Baseline |
|---|
| Ensemble Median | Range |
|---|
| Mean Temperature (°C) |
Annual |
+1.8 °C |
+1.3 °C to +2.7 °C |
| Precipitation (%) |
Annual
Summer
Winter |
+6%
-1%
+8% |
+2% to +11%
-8% to +6%
-2% to +16% |
| Snowfall* (%) |
Winter
Spring |
-10%
-58% |
-16% to +2%
-70% to -20% |
| Growing Degree Days* (degree days) |
Annual |
+305 degree days |
+191 to +459 degree days |
| Heating Degree Days* (degree days) |
Annual |
-652 degree days |
-963 to -473 degree days |
| Frost-Free Days* (days) |
Annual |
+20 days |
+12 to +28 days |
The table above shows projected changes in average (mean) temperature, precipitation and several derived climate variables from the baseline historical period (1961-1990) to the 2050s for the British Columbia region. The ensemble median is a mid-point value, chosen from a standard set of PCIC-chosen Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see the 'Notes' tab for more information). The range values represent the low and high ends of the expected range (i.e., the 10th and 90th percentile of the set). Please note that this summary table does not reflect the 'time of year' choice made under the 'Settings' tab. However, this setting does affect results obtained under each variable tab.
* These values are derived from temperature and precipitation. Please select the appropriate variable tab for more information.
Summary of Potential Impacts
| Potential Impacts for the British Columbia region in 2050s period |
|---|
| Projections and Variability Effects | Potential Impacts |
|---|
| Warmer annual temperature | - Glacier retreat (if applicable)
- Changes in seasonality of streamflow
- Increased evaporation
- Longer fire seasons may result in more interface fires that threaten communities and infrastructure
|
| Winter warming | - Mid-winter thaw events may damage roads and cause ice jams and flooding with damage to infrastructure such as bridges
|
Warning: DO NOT USE OR REPRODUCE THE CONTENTS OF THIS TABLE. The current table is created using rules to relate projected climate change to impacts. The thresholds and rules are arbitrary. This table is for demonstration purposes only and will be replaced by new rules developed through a more rigorous process involving climate impacts experts.
The table above shows potential impacts resulting from climate change for the British Columbia region by the 2050s period. It is important to note that these are potential impacts only, based on the amount of projected climate change. An appropriate regional adaptation expert should be consulted prior to making use of this information in order to further determine its local relevance and completeness.
Future Temperature* Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual temperature* for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual temperature* (Degrees C) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual temperature* for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual temperature* change (Degrees C) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* Temperature refers to the average of the nighttime low (minimum temperature) and the daytime high (maximum temperature).
Future Precipitation* (rain plus snow) Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual precipitation* (rain plus snow) for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual precipitation* (rain plus snow) (mm per day) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual precipitation* (rain plus snow) for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual precipitation* (rain plus snow) change (percent) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* Precipitation (rain plus snow) refers to the total amount of water that results from rainfall plus the amount of water that would result from melting of fallen snow.
Future Precipitation as Snow* Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual precipitation as snow* for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual precipitation as snow* (mm) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual precipitation as snow* for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual precipitation as snow* change (percent) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* 'Precipitation as Snow' is a derived variable, calculated from GCM projected total precipitation (rain and snow) as well as temperature.
Annual values of this derived variable have been coorected based on an emperical relationship between computed and observed values in BC. This correction is not yet available for seasonal values so the annual values may differ from the seasonal totals
Future Growing Degree Days* Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual growing degree days* for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual growing degree days* (degree days) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual growing degree days* for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual growing degree days* change (degree days) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* Growing Degree Days (GDDs) is a derived variable that indicates the amount of heat energy available for plant growth, useful for determining the growth potential of crops in a given area. It is calculated by multiplying the number of days that the mean daily temperature exceeded 5°C by the number of degrees above that threshold. For example, if a given day saw an average temperature of 8°C (3°C above the 5°C threshold), that day contributed 3 GDDs to the total. If a month had 15 such days, and the rest of the days had mean temperatures below the 5°C threshold, that month would result in 45 GDDs.
Annual values of this derived variable have been coorected based on an emperical relationship between computed and observed values in BC. This correction is not yet available for seasonal values so the annual values may differ from the seasonal totals
Future Heating Degree Days* Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual heating degree days* for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual heating degree days* (degree days) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual heating degree days* for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual heating degree days* change (degree days) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* Heating Degree Days (HDDs) is a derived variable that can be useful for indicating energy demand (i.e. the need to heat homes, etc.). It is calculated by multiplying the number of days that the average (mean) daily temperature is below 18°C by the number of degrees below that threshold. For example, if a given day saw an average (mean) temperature of 14°C (4°C below the 18°C threshold), that day contributed 4 HDDs to the total. If a month had 15 such days, and the rest of the days had average (mean) temperatures above the 18°C threshold, that month would result in 60 HDDs.
Annual values of this derived variable have been coorected based on an emperical relationship between computed and observed values in BC. This correction is not yet available for seasonal values so the annual values may differ from the seasonal totals
Future Frost Free Days* Projections
Click on the thumbnail at left to view high-resolution maps showing
Annual frost free days* for the
British Columbia region for both the historical baseline (1961-1990) period and the
2050s period. An accompanying range plot shows how the results illustrated in the projected future map compare to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
CLOSE ×
The maps show Annual frost free days* (days) for the British Columbia region. The historical map on the far left is based on observed and interpolated station data while the projected map shows how this picture will change by the 2050s period, based on a single GCM projection. The range plot at far right shows where the change reflected in the projected map (identified by the blue dot) compares to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections. Use this to determine whether the projection used can be considered high or low relative to other projections in the set. Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
Click on the thumbnail at left to view a plot showing the range of projected change in
Annual frost free days* for the
British Columbia region over three future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
The data used for the future projections are also available for
download as a CSV (comma-separated values) file that can be imported into a spreadsheet program.
CLOSE ×
Plot | Interpretation |
|---|
|
This figure shows the range of projected Annual frost free days* change (days) for the British Columbia region over three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) according to a PCIC standard set of GCM projections (see 'Notes' tab for more information). The range of change based on this set of projections is indicated as follows:
- The black line indicates the mid-point (median) in the set.
- The dark grey shading shows the middle 50% (25th to 75th percentiles), representing half of the projections in the set.
- The light grey shading shows the range according to 80% of the climate change projections used (10th to 90th percentiles).
Note: some variables do not come directly from the climate models (see 'Notes' tab for more information).
|
* Frost-free days is a derived variable referring to the number of days that the minimum daily temperature stayed above 0°C, useful for determining the suitability of growing certain crops in a given area.
Annual values of this derived variable have been coorected based on an emperical relationship between computed and observed values in BC. This correction is not yet available for seasonal values so the annual values may differ from the seasonal totals
Notes
- Multiple projections information is drawn from a set of 30 GCM projections based on results from 15 different Global Climate Models (GCMs), each using one run of a high (A2) and a lower (B1) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. By the end of the 21st century, these scenarios anticipate an atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases of approximately 1250 ppm (A2) and 600 ppm (B1), expressed as carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Neither scenario incorporates the effects of international agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, though other socio-economic factors like population growth are modelled. Each GCM comes from a different modelling centre (e.g. the Hadley Centre (UK), National Centre for Atmospheric Research (USA), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA), and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), etc.).
- The single projection used for the maps is the CGCM3 A2 run 4. CGCM3 is the Canadian Global Climate Model, developed and run by Environment Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis at the University of Victoria. The A2 specification denotes a possible future where emissions continue to rise alongside increases in human population and economic growth. A2 is one emissions scenario amongst several developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (see 'References' tab).
- High-resolution climate data is obtained by using the ClimateBC empirical downscaling tool. ClimateBC uses interpolation, an elevation correction on temperature, and the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) 4 km high-resolution climatology derived from a multiple regression of weather station data against topographical features. This projected change from Global Climate Models (GCMs) is applied to the high resolution past in order to obtain an estimate of future climate at the same high resolution.
- The 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time periods are meant to be used as three representative planning horizons over the 21st century. Results for these three planning horizons are computed by averaging GCM projections over the 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 periods, respectively.
- With the exception of temperature and precipitation, most variable values shown here are not directly observed or obtained from the GCMs. Instead, they are derived from temperature and/or precipitation using methods described in Wang et al., 2006 (see 'References' tab).
Acknowledgements
Development of this tool has been made possible through funding and support provided by the BC Ministry of Environment and the BC Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Science Program and is a project of Natural Resources Canada's British Columbia Regional Adaptation Collaborative.
References
British Columbia Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. 2002. Indicators of Climate Change for British Columbia 2002. Victoria, BC. 48 pp.
Cohen, Stewart. 2009. Climate Change in the 21st Century - Understanding the World's Biggest Crisis. McGill-Queen's University Press. 379 pp.
Daly, C., W.P. Gibson, G.H. Taylor, G.L. Johnson, and P. Pasteris. 2002. "A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate", Climate Research, 22: 99-113. Details the PRISM 4km climatology.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press. 570 pp. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.htm
Rodenhuis, D.R., Bennett, K.E., Werner, A.T., Murdock, T.Q., Bronaugh, D. Revised 2009. Hydro-climatology and future climate impacts in British Columbia. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria BC, 132 pp. Provides additional information on future climate projects in British Columbia.
Wang, T.L., Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D.L. and Aitken, S.N., 2006. "Development of scale-free climate data for Western Canada for use in resource management", International Journal of Climatology, 26: 383-397. Details the ClimateBC empirical downscaling tool.
